Michael Turner
Recommendation: Plan for 300–600 miles (480–965 km) over 30 days: average 10–20 miles (16–32 km) per day depending on terrain, elevation gain and pack weight.
Terrain-based targets: steep, technical trails → 8–12 miles/day (13–19 km/day) → ~240–360 miles (385–580 km). Mixed singletrack and maintained trails → 12–20 miles/day (19–32 km/day) → ~360–600 miles (580–965 km). Flat, firm surfaces with light load → 20–30 miles/day (32–48 km/day) → ~600–900 miles (965–1,450 km).
Pack and fitness adjustments: a 35–45 lb (16–20 kg) base weight typically reduces daily averages by ~20–30% versus a 10–15 lb (4.5–7 kg) ultralight setup. Plan at least one full rest day every 7–10 days and add a 5–10% mileage buffer for weather, navigation errors and minor injuries. Resupply every 3–7 days to limit carried food weight.
Elevation and pace: for routes averaging >1,500 m (5,000 ft) total gain per day, reduce horizontal targets by roughly 30%. Moving speed with load: ~4–5 km/h (2.5–3 mph) on maintained paths, ~3–4 km/h (2–2.5 mph) on technical terrain. A 16 km (10 mi) day therefore requires ~4–6 hours moving and typically 6–10 hours total on trail including breaks.
Goal-setting by experience: conservative target for less experienced hikers is ~400 miles (640 km) in 30 days on mixed terrain with moderate pack weight. Experienced hikers using ultralight systems on easy routes frequently exceed 700 miles (1,120 km); confirm resupply points, water sources and cumulative elevation before committing to high-end targets.
Daily mileage targets by terrain and loaded pack weight
Recommendation: Choose the target that matches terrain and pack weight, then apply the listed adjustments for elevation, route difficulty and heat; treat resupply days as heavier-load days for the first 48 hours.
Targets by terrain and pack weight (miles / km per day)
Flat, well-maintained trail – Light pack (<9 kg / <20 lb): 20–30 mi (32–48 km). Moderate pack (9–16 kg / 20–35 lb): 15–22 mi (24–35 km). Heavy pack (>16 kg / >35 lb): 10–16 mi (16–26 km).
Rolling hills, frequent short climbs (total gain ~500–1500 ft/day) – Light: 15–22 mi (24–35 km). Moderate: 12–18 mi (19–29 km). Heavy: 8–13 mi (13–21 km).
Mountainous, sustained climbing (>2000 ft/day) – Light: 10–15 mi (16–24 km). Moderate: 7–12 mi (11–19 km). Heavy: 5–9 mi (8–14 km).
Technical or off-trail (boulder fields, route-finding, dense brush) – Light: 6–12 mi (10–19 km). Moderate: 4–8 mi (6–13 km). Heavy: 2–5 mi (3–8 km).
Adjustments and short formulas
Elevation gain: subtract ~1.5–2.0 miles (2.4–3.2 km) per 1,000 ft (300 m) of extra daily gain from the baseline target. Example: moderate pack on rolling hills baseline 15 mi; +3,000 ft gain → reduce ~4.5–6 mi → plan 9–11 mi.
Technical terrain: multiply baseline by 0.5–0.8 depending on difficulty (0.8 for firm scree, 0.5 for Class 3+ scrambling). Heat (>30°C / 86°F): reduce baseline 15–25% and increase water-carrying weight, which further lowers pace.
Pack weight effects (simple offsets): light → use baseline; moderate → subtract 15–25%; heavy → subtract 30–45%. For days immediately after resupply (large food weight) treat as heavy for 1–2 days.
Altitude above 2,500 m (8,200 ft): reduce expected distance an additional 10–30% depending on acclimatization; at extreme altitudes expect reductions beyond these percentages.
Fatigue management: expect average daily distance to drop 10–25% after 4–6 consecutive hard days; schedule an easy day (50–70% of baseline) every 5–7 days to preserve long-term average.
Use these targets to build realistic daily plans and totals for any itinerary; seasonal timing also changes achievable daily outputs – see best time to go see umbrella sky for an example of seasonal impact on pace.
Adjusting 30‑day mileage for fitness level and hiking pace
Recommendation: set a 30‑day target equal to 30 × your comfortable daily average, then apply the modifiers below to produce a realistic target in miles (km conversions provided).
Baseline daily averages (comfortable pace with a light pack, no extreme elevation): Novice 3–5 mi/day (5–8 km) → 90–150 mi (145–240 km); Recreational 6–9 mi/day (10–15 km) → 180–270 mi (290–435 km); Fit 10–14 mi/day (16–22 km) → 300–420 mi (480–675 km); Fast/experienced 15–20 mi/day (24–32 km) → 450–600 mi (720–965 km).
Pack weight: use 15 lb (7 kg) as baseline. For each extra 5 lb (2.3 kg) above baseline reduce daily by 5–8%; for packs under 12 lb (5.5 kg) increase daily by 3–6%. Example: +10 lb → −10–16% daily distance.
Elevation gain: subtract 7–12% of daily distance for each 1,000 ft (300 m) of sustained gain per day; routes averaging >4,000 ft/day require a 35–50% reduction. Technical uphill with off-trail travel adds an extra 10–20% penalty.
Altitude and acclimatization: above 8,000 ft (2,400 m) reduce daily by 20–40% depending on acclimatization; schedule 2–3 light days per 1,000 m ascent to recover performance (light day = 25–50% of normal distance).
Rest-day strategy: for moderate load and terrain use one light or zero‑mile rest day every 6–8 hiking days; for heavy load/steep terrain use one every 4–5 days. Count light rest days as 25–50% of baseline and include them in the 30‑day total.
Age and injury history: add a 5–15% reduction for ages 50–60, 15–25% for 60+. Prior lower‑limb injury or chronic joint pain: subtract a further 10–30% and increase rest frequency.
Calculation example
Person A: comfortable 12 mi/day → baseline 360 mi (580 km). Pack 20 lb (+5 lb → −6%), average elevation 2,000 ft/day (−15%), one rest day every 5 days (6 rest days at 25% distance = subtract 75 mi). Stepwise: 360 × 0.94 = 338.4 → × 0.85 = 287.6 → minus 75 = 212.6 mi (≈342 km) final 30‑day target.
Quick formula
Final 30‑day target ≈ 30 × D × (1 − P_pack − P_elev − P_alt − P_age) − Rest_adjustment, where D = comfortable daily miles and each P_ is the fractional penalty (expressed as decimal). Adjust penalties conservatively; test with a 7–10 day shakedown before committing to long plans.
Extra resource (non-hiking): how to clean cat pee from leather couch
Resupply timing and food-weight trade-offs that affect total miles
Plan resupplies every 3–5 days in steep, remote sections and every 5–7 days on rolling or flat sections; keep carried food between resupplies to 4–8 lb whenever possible.
Use this formula to size food weight: Food weight (lb) = (daily kcal × days) / (kcal_per_oz × 16). Examples: 3,000 kcal/day at 125 kcal/oz → 3 days = 4.5 lb, 7 days = 10.5 lb. At 170 kcal/oz the same 3-day load drops to ≈3.3 lb.
Calorie density matters. Typical densities: freeze-dried meals ≈100–130 kcal/oz, nuts/peanut butter ≈160–200 kcal/oz, dense bars ≈140–180 kcal/oz. Switching from 125 to 170 kcal/oz reduces food weight by ~25% for the same calories (e.g., saves ~1.2 lb on a 3-day, 3,000 kcal/day load).
Performance rule-of-thumb: every extra 3–6 lb of carried weight commonly reduces daily distance by about 5–12% due to slower uphill speed and greater fatigue. Example: a hiker averaging 12 miles/day with an 18 lb base load will likely drop to 10.8–11.4 miles/day if total weight increases by 3–6 lb.
Resupply frequency also costs time. Typical town resupply consumes 2–6 hours; adding transport or a zero day can convert one resupply into a full day lost. Over a 30-day outing, resupplying every 3 days (~10 stops) at 3 hours each costs ~30 hours; every 6 days (~5 stops) at 3 hours costs ~15 hours. Trade-off: fewer stops = heavier average carrying weight but less time off-trail.
Practical planning checklist:
- Target 3–5 day resupply in alpine/steep zones to limit peak food weight to ~4–6 lb.
- Use high-density snacks (nuts, oil-based bars) to raise kcal/oz above 150 and cut food weight 20–30% versus low-density freeze-dried alone.
- Add one emergency day (2,000–3,000 kcal) to any plan; carry it as dense calories (<0.8 lb at 170 kcal/oz for 2,500 kcal).
- For long stretches where speed matters most, consider maildrops or pre-placed caches to keep rip weight low while minimizing town time.
Net example comparing two strategies for a 30-day outing aiming to maximize trail miles: Strategy A – resupply every 7 days, 3,000 kcal/day at 125 kcal/oz: start food 10.5 lb, average carried ≈5.25 lb; expect 5–10% pace penalty and ~4 resupply stops. Strategy B – resupply every 3 days, 3,000 kcal/day at 170 kcal/oz: start food 3.3 lb, average ≈1.65 lb; expect 0–5% pace penalty and ~10 stops (more time in towns). Choice depends on whether you value on-trail daily mileage (favor B) or minimizing time off-trail and resupply logistics (favor A).
Route selection: linking trails, roads and public transport to maximize distance
Adopt a hybrid plan: target ~60% travel on roads/gravel and 40% on singletrack to boost linear mileage roughly 25–35% compared with trail-only itineraries over a 30‑day period.
Typical speed and daily mileage estimates for planning: singletrack (technical, rooty) 2.0–3.0 mph → 10–18 miles per 6‑hour day; graded dirt/gravel road 3.0–4.0 mph → 18–28 miles per 8‑hour day; paved shoulder/quiet highway 3.5–4.5 mph → 21–36 miles per 8–10 hour day. Use these ranges to model alternate-day mixes.
Concrete example calculation: trail-only average 15 miles/day × 30 days = 450 miles. Hybrid: 20 trail days × 15 = 300 miles plus 10 road days × 28 = 280 miles → 580 miles total (+29%). Swap one low-value trail segment for a paved connector and expect a 10–20% jump in cumulative miles without adding recovery days.
Route-linking tactics: 1) Identify long, contiguous corridor trails as backbone; 2) insert road march connectors where grade is lower and surface allows faster speed; 3) use scheduled public transport to reposition from low-efficiency corridors to distant high-efficiency corridors, preserving hiking days on fast surfaces; 4) plan overnight vehicle legs (night trains/buses) to cover 200–600 miles while sleeping, enabling next-day high-mileage walking on favorable terrain.
Transit checklist: verify weekday vs weekend frequency, luggage rules, earliest/latest departure times, and ticket refund rules. For rural buses expect 1–3 departures per day; factor a missed-bus buffer of 4–8 hours. Prioritize corridors with hourly or better service if your plan relies on same-day repositioning.
Mapping and GPX workflow: layer topographic trail data, OpenStreetMap road classes, and transit stops on a single map. Flag connector segments by surface and expected speed, then compute cumulative miles per segment and per day. Run at least three simulations (trail‑heavy, balanced, road‑heavy) and pick the plan whose worst‑case daily mileages match your comfort level.
Permission and access notes: confirm road-walking legality for private access roads and seasonal closures for public transport. Schedule contingency days (2–4) for missed connections or severe weather; reduce planned daily miles by 10% on routes with >5,000 ft elevation gain per day.
Final operational rule: if a connector increases average daily linear miles by more than 20% while adding ≤2 forced logistics events (bus/train bookings, short taxi), prefer the connector; otherwise keep the trail link for lower complexity.
Weather, elevation gain and season-related pace reductions
Plan to reduce planned daily distance by 15–50% depending on combined weather, ascent and season; use a baseline walking speed of 2.5 mph on dry, mild low-elevation trails and apply the modifiers below.
| Condition | Typical effect on pace | Planning adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| Dry, maintained trail | 0% change | Baseline: 2.5 mph |
| Light rain / slick rocks | -10% to -20% | Multiply planned time by 1.10–1.25 |
| Heavy rain / persistent mud | -25% to -40% | Multiply planned time by 1.33–1.67 |
| Snow/packed snow (no tools) | -50% to -75% | Multiply planned time by 2.0–4.0 |
| Snow with snowshoes/crampons | -25% to -50% | Multiply planned time by 1.33–2.0 |
| Strong headwind >25 mph | -5% to -20% | Add 5–20 min per hour |
| Steep ascent (Naismith adaptation) | +1 hour per 2,000 ft ascent | Add 30 min per 1,000 ft ascent |
| Altitude effects | 8,000–10,000 ft: -10% to -20% >10,000 ft: -20% to -35% |
Increase time by 1.1–1.35; add acclimatization days |
| Short daylight / winter | -30% to -50% effective daily hours | Reduce daily distance accordingly; schedule more zero days |
Apply modifiers multiplicatively when conditions combine: example – 10 miles at 2.5 mph = 4.0 hours base. Add 4,000 ft ascent = +2.0 hours (Naismith) → 6.0 hours. If heavy mud (-33%), multiply by 1.33 → 8.0 hours total. If heavy wind adds 10% → 8.8 hours.
Altitude planning: expect measurable drop in sustainable daily mileage above 8,000 ft. For trips with cumulative summit days or >3 consecutive days above 8,000 ft, insert one full acclimatization zero day per 3–5 high days and reduce estimated daily miles by 10–25% until symptoms resolve.
Seasonal buffers: shoulder seasons (spring thaw, autumn storms) require adding 10–25% extra time for weather delays; winter routes require 20–40% extra time plus contingency rest days for storms or poor trailbreaking.
Practical checklist before finalizing plan: set baseline miles using 2.5 mph, compute ascent penalty (30 min per 1,000 ft), apply table multipliers for surface, snow and wind, add altitude and daylight penalties, then add a contingency buffer of 15% (spring/autumn) or 25–40% (winter/high alpine).
Rest days, injury buffers and contingency planning for monthly mileage
Schedule at least three full rest days inside a 30-day period: two single 24-hour rests and one extended 48–72 hour recovery; add 2–3 buffer days for injury or transport delays (total planned downtime = 5–6 days).
- Rhythm template: hike 5–6 days, rest 1 day. After two high-effort weeks (≥120 miles or ≥20,000 ft elevation gain combined), insert a 48–72 hour recovery.
- Buffer allocation: set aside 10–20% of total trip days as contingency. Example: 30-day span → 3–6 buffer days; treat these as non-negotiable schedule slack.
- Distance recalculation formula: Adjusted daily target = Planned total miles ÷ (Total days − rest days − buffer days). Example: 600 planned miles ÷ (30 − 6 rest/buffer) = 25 miles/day required.
On-field injury decision rules (use simple 0–10 pain scale):
- Blister: pain ≤3 – stop 1–2 hours, soak & re-dress, change socks/footwear inserts, continue if pain ≤2. Pain ≥5 or repeated openings – rest full day and reduce mileage 30–50% next two days.
- Grade I ankle sprain (mild swelling, can bear weight): immobilize with elastic wrap, 24–48 hour rest, use NSAID + icing, monitor. If no improvement after 48 hours, arrange evacuation.
- Muscle strain: pain ≤4 with preserved strength – rest 48 hours, active rehab, reduce load; pain ≥5 or loss of function – stop and seek medical assessment or extraction.
- Fever, dizziness, hypothermia signs – cease movement immediately, prioritize shelter and extraction; do not continue until cleared by a medic.
Minimal contingency kit (target total additional weight 300–900 g):
- Blister kit (moleskin, thin foam pads) – 40–70 g
- Light elastic bandage (5–7 cm) – 40 g
- Compact SAM splint or rigid support – 60–120 g
- Antiseptic wipes, tape, sterile dressings – 80–120 g
- Analgesics (ibuprofen/acetaminophen) and antihistamine – 30–50 g
- Personal locator beacon or satellite messenger (PLB / InReach) – 100–200 g (battery included)
Contingency communications & extraction planning:
- Pre-identify bail-out points every 10–25 miles (or every 6–12 hours on hard terrain) with GPS coordinates and nearest road access.
- Store local bus/taxi phone numbers and typical daytime service windows; list two alternate transport options per bail-out point.
- Publish a moving itinerary to one trusted contact with check-in windows; include a 48–72 hour fail-safe before emergency notification.
- Carry a charged satellite messenger and practice sending a test message before departure.
Food and gear trade-offs for buffers:
- Carry 2 extra days of calories as standard buffer: estimate 0.6–1.2 kg depending on food density (dehydrated meals, nuts, bars). One extra day of high-calorie food typically weighs 300–700 g.
- If adding 3 buffer days, reduce planned base miles by ~10–20% or increase daily targets on hiking days by the inverse proportion (see formula above).
Pre-trip setup checklist:
- Mark at least five bail-out coordinates along chosen corridor and verify mobile signal + transport options for each.
- Pack contingency food for 2–3 days and the minimal medical kit listed above.
- Schedule confirmed rest days on the route plan and reserve accommodation on at least two of those stops.
- Test satellite device, export GPX with bail-outs, and send a copy to emergency contact.
Lightening tip for carrying extra contingency gear: replace bulky hard-shell items with multi-use solutions and ultralight alternatives; compare compact luggage or carry solutions before departure – see best luggage for mediterranean cruise for examples of compact, durable options.
